| Best Market Research Part 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Optimistic hard-liner dreaming now: Well, no problem, maybe interest-rates are falling under 5% and will hold the Stock-market on the current level... Well, my dears, consumer price index rose in April more than 0,7%, the biggest increase in 9 years... And our good old Allan watching CPI very carefully and mentioned - because of the high increase in CPI - already the possibility of higher interest-rates... | |||||||||||||||||||||||
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You asked what's happened after that kind of heavy CPI increase? Well, the first 4 bars show the increase of the 30 years T.Bond-Yield 3, 6, 9 and 12 month after CPI came with equal or more than 0,7% a month, like in April. Since 1977 it was 46 times the case, and the yields continually went up, until an increase of an average 11% (means from 5% to 5,55%, for example) 1 year after the number. An monthly CPI lower than 0,1% had no impact on interest-rates. Deflation, CPIs lower than 0% forced the FED to lower rates, to avoid recession. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Well, doesn't look so good... My message again: | Hedge your stocks, and sell Options, getting good and save premium! If you are tough enough, sell S+P-Futures! That makes really happy - if it goes on your direction. ...And in this situation - it will!! By the way - I celebrate this year my 20st. Anniversary in Futures-Trading! My first trade was in Silver, on August 13. 1979... ...13... really stupid... it became a loss... ...But losses are a good motivation for better market research - and good market research is the best way for good gains... ...How you find my research?? If you have any comment, don't be shy to mail me! And now good luck to all - Reinhard
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